Canada economy tops July growth forecast, but seen stalling in August

Canada’s gross domestic product expanded at a faster-than-expected 0.2 per cent rate in July, driven by growth in retail trade and public sectors, but the economy likely stalled in August, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecasted GDP to rise 0.1 per cent in the month, after zero growth in June. The growth in July was despite the negative impact of wildfires on several industries, Statscan said.

Preliminary data for August, however, showed GDP was essentially unchanged as growth in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by contraction in manufacturing as well as transportation and warehousing sectors.

That forecast keeps alive concerns about a weakening economy and puts the economy on track for 1 per cent annualized growth in the third quarter if GDP remains unchanged in September.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) forecasted a 2.8 per cent growth rate for the third quarter in July, but data released since then have led economists to doubt that projected trajectory and raised bets for a larger-than-usual rate cut in October.

The central bank has cut interest rates three times since June, moving in quarter-percentage-point steps, but has said it could shift to larger cuts if the economy needs a boost. Money markets see a roughly 50 per cent chance of a 50 basis-point cut at the bank’s next announcement on Oct. 23.

On Tuesday, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said that it was reasonable to expect more rate cuts given the progress made in cooling inflation and reiterated the bank wanted to see growth pick up to absorb economic slack.

Economic growth in July was driven by increases in both services and goods industries, Statscan said.

The services-producing industries rose 0.2 per cent, led by growth in retail trade, and the public, and financial and insurance sectors that helped to offset wildfires’ impact on transportation and warehousing as well as accommodation services.

The goods-producing industries grew 0.1 per cent, driven by the utilities and manufacturing sectors.

(Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa; Editing by Dale Smith)